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The New Space Race: How Taiwan and China Are Battling for Satellite Supremacy
National Security, Geopolitical Influence, and the Future of Global Communications
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Amazing that this happened recently!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
7:43 AM • Oct 25, 2024
On #Taiwan#環球大戰線 show, I discussed Shenzhou 16 returns and the space race between #China and the US.
youtu.be/ELFOJyz_-fs?si…
— Ross Feingold (方恩格) (@RossFeingold)
2:17 PM • Oct 31, 2023
In recent years, low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks have emerged as critical infrastructure for global communications and national security. As geopolitical tensions rise, countries worldwide are fast-tracking their efforts to develop independent satellite networks. In particular, Taiwan, China, and the United States have all embarked on ambitious satellite internet projects, each with its motivations, challenges, and implications for global stability.
Taiwan Secures Satellite Internet as a Defense Against Chinese Threats
Taiwan is advancing its satellite internet capabilities, driven by the need to secure its communications in case of potential military aggression from China. The island nation, which faces the threat of invasion from Beijing, has been actively bolstering its digital defenses, recognizing the vulnerability of its internet access in times of conflict.
To this end, Taiwan has contracted the UK-European company Eutelsat OneWeb to provide LEO satellite internet services, marking a significant step forward in the island’s national security strategy. The contract, signed last year with Chunghwa Telecom, Taiwan’s largest telecommunications provider, aims to ensure continuous coverage by the end of the month. This satellite service would supplement the existing undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the global internet, which have been cut multiple times, sometimes accidentally, by passing ships.
The rapid advancement of LEO satellite networks has shown their immense utility in modern warfare, as evidenced by Ukraine’s reliance on Elon Musk’s Starlink service during its conflict with Russia. However, Taiwan's attempts to negotiate access to Starlink were unsuccessful, primarily due to concerns over the potential influence of Musk’s extensive business ties to China. Musk's public remarks, where he suggested Taiwan should cede some control to China to avoid conflict, added to Taiwan's concerns about Starlink's reliability in a crisis.
Taiwan’s government recognizes the limitations of relying on external providers like OneWeb and has committed nearly $10 billion towards building a domestic satellite internet network. It plans to launch its first communication satellites by 2026, reinforcing its technological autonomy and national security infrastructure.
China’s Ambitious Push to Compete with Starlink
While Taiwan is strengthening its digital defenses, China is accelerating efforts to compete with the U.S. in the satellite internet sector, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign technology and dominate the LEO satellite market. Beijing’s state-backed companies, such as Qianfan and China Satellite Network Group, are in a race to deploy vast constellations of satellites, directly competing with Musk’s Starlink, which already boasts over 6,400 satellites in orbit.
China plans to launch a staggering 40,000 LEO satellites in the coming decade, positioning itself as a serious contender in the satellite internet market. The country’s strategic interests are twofold: military necessity and geopolitical influence. Chinese leaders have observed how Starlink has provided Ukraine with vital internet connectivity during its war with Russia, offering decisive advantages on the battlefield. In a potential conflict over Taiwan, China recognizes the need for a secure satellite network insulated from foreign control to support its military operations.
Beyond military applications, China also sees the satellite internet sector as a means to extend its geopolitical influence. Through initiatives like the Digital Silk Road, China has already been exporting telecommunications infrastructure to numerous developing countries, many of which lack reliable internet access. With a robust satellite network in place, China could offer satellite-based internet services to these regions, leveraging technology for political influence. This presents a clear challenge to the U.S. and other democratic nations, as China's systems could come with built-in censorship and surveillance capabilities that would strengthen authoritarian regimes.
Starlink’s Lead and China’s Catch-Up Strategy
Despite China’s rapid progress, it still faces significant hurdles in catching up to Starlink. The complexity of LEO satellite technology lies in the need for thousands of satellites to operate in synchronicity, continuously handing off signals to maintain uninterrupted coverage. Starlink’s network, consisting of more than 6,000 satellites, is far ahead of its Chinese competitors, with only 18 satellites currently in orbit under Qianfan.
However, China is not backing down. Qianfan plans to launch over 600 satellites by 2025, aiming for a total of 14,000 satellites in the coming years. Additionally, China’s ambitious mega constellation projects, including the Guowang and G60 plans, underscore the country’s determination to establish a major presence in space-based communications.
China has also ramped up its launch capabilities, conducting frequent satellite launches using Long March rockets. As of August, the country successfully launched 18 communication satellites as part of the Qianfan network, signaling its growing proficiency in space technology.
Geopolitical Tensions and the Need for Independent Networks
The satellite internet race is not just a matter of technological development but also one of geopolitical strategy. As China seeks to reduce its reliance on U.S.-dominated technologies like Starlink, it has begun pursuing plans to deploy its own independent systems, fearing that U.S.-controlled networks could be weaponized in future conflicts.
Beijing has learned from the Ukraine conflict, where Starlink played a crucial role in maintaining Ukrainian military communications. China’s military leaders, especially in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), recognize that secure, uninterrupted satellite internet access will be essential for coordinating operations in the event of a military engagement over Taiwan.
In this context, China’s drive to develop its own LEO satellite network goes hand in hand with its broader goal of technological self-reliance. The launch of China's Beidou navigation system, designed to replace the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS), was a similar effort to reduce dependency on foreign systems, ensuring that the Chinese military and other critical industries are not reliant on U.S. technology during a conflict.
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The Future of Satellite Internet: Strategic and Commercial Implications
As the competition for satellite dominance intensifies, the global landscape of internet connectivity is likely to change. Starlink remains the global leader in satellite internet, with its vast network covering multiple regions worldwide. However, China’s aggressive expansion plans pose a challenge, especially in areas where Starlink has yet to establish significant coverage, such as parts of Africa and Asia.
The strategic advantages of satellite internet are clear. In conflict zones, where traditional communications infrastructure may be disrupted or destroyed, satellite internet provides a crucial lifeline. For authoritarian regimes, satellite technology offers new tools for censorship and surveillance, raising concerns about the potential spread of Chinese-style digital authoritarianism to other parts of the world.
For countries like Taiwan, securing reliable satellite internet access is more than just a technological upgrade; it is a matter of national survival. As China continues to expand its satellite capabilities, the U.S. and its allies will need to reassess their own positions in this rapidly evolving domain. The race to control space-based communications is not just about commercial opportunity but about securing a strategic advantage in an increasingly contested world.
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